The Republic vs The Nation

August 31, 2009

Sounds like a geography lesson, eh?

First, let’s review a bit.

The Rays played a heck of a game today, winning 11-7.  While the pitching left something to be desired, the hitting was just what the doctor ordered.

Carlos Pena’s big home run helped to cap the matinee tilt today.  Congrats on the win, guys.  It got us to within 5 games of the wild card.

Not only did it help with our wild card chase, but it also gave the Rays a little bit of the Big Mo’ as they left Motown to come home to face the guys from Beantown.

Now the Rays enter one of the biggest series they’ve played all season long. 

And it’s against the Red Sox.

Let the insanity begin.

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GAME 1

    VS   

Pitching Matchup

When you look at the matchups, it looks like you are seeing two teams in the playoffs ready to get into some serious fighting.  I’ll preview the pitching matchup as each game comes around.

Andy Sonnanstine vs. John Lester

          

Sonny is fresh up from Durham, which could be a good thing and a bad thing.  Good in that he has had a little extra rest and has been facing lesser AAA hitters–his confidence should be fairly high.  His arrival is not the best, though, because, well, he was sent to Durham for a reason.

And, um, there’s the little thing about his 5.00+ ERA at the Trop.

Lester has simply been on a roll.  He hasn’t lost in 7 decisions! 

His success against the Rays is far from guaranteed, though, as his career ERA against our Rays is a robust 4.66!

Somethin’s gotta give here, but I don’t know where.  It could be that both starters struggle and the bullpens will take over.

Judging from our lack of bullpen consistency in our last 8 games, I would say that it sounds like a scary proposition to allow our bullpen to figure too much in the decision right now.

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#3’s Been Missing

Where have you gone, Longo?

The Rays seem to have been playing without a 3B lately, as Evan Longoria has pretty much disappeared from the lineup. 

I think it is pretty easy to surmise that without a strong Longo, the Rays will find it difficult to compete against the BoSox. 

It would be difficult to compete with a Longoria hitting on all cylinders, too.

In the last week–and this is WITH his 3/5 day today–Longo has hit:

                      .160    1 HR    2 RBI

Ouch.

In the month, and this will make you cry, he has hit:

                      .243    4 HR    12 RBI

Hmmmmm, I wonder why the Rays have fallen to 5 games out of the wild card.

Surely, it can’t all be pinned on him.  No doubt, the pitching has struggled just as much.

BUT

Imagine a Longoria hitting the way he is capable to go WITH a Pena who has been hitting everything except the wall (I was going to say “momma,” but it sounded bad) and we could have a Rays team that is part of the conversation.

Instead, our Rays have to hope to win the series if they want to stay in contention in the least.

Sure, in his last three games he has put up some decent numbers (a homer the other day, a 3/5 day today).  And maybe those numbers indicate a turnaround. 

But “maybe” won’t be good enough for a series such as this one.

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3 Keys to the Game   

1–Lester is get-able.  The Rays hitters have rocked him this season (see May 9th: 4.1 IP, 10H, 8 R).  I don’t care what his recent string of success might portend, the Rays have the ability to knock him out of the game early. 

2–The crowd must step up.  The Trop can rock.  No doubt about it.  It can get hitters and pitchers alike off their stride.  The Sox have been to the Trop plenty, and they STILL call it a “House of Horrors.”  Let’s scare the living S—- out of ’em!

3–The bullpen must pitch well.  Sonny might not have alot to give the team.  He might leave early.  That means that the ‘pen must come in and slam the door shut.  Joe Maddon won’t have alot of patience for Sonnanstine if he falls too far behind.

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This series CAN make or break the season. 

I’ve said that before, but not without great thought.

This series is HUGE.

These are the possibilities:

If the Rays sweep, they’ll sit (likely) 2 games out of the wild card with 4-5 weeks to go.

If they win the series, they’ll still be 4 out, hardly encouraging.

If they lose the series, they’ll be 6 out.  Ugh.

If they get swept, the season is over.  8 games out of the wild card is too much for any team.

There is only one scenario I’d like to see.  A series win won’t do it. 

I want the sweep.

Who doesn’t? 

In the Rays Republic, of course, everybody wants it.

Republic vs. Nation.

Playoff chaser vs. Playoff leader.

Rays vs. Red Sox.

Are we feelin’ it yet?

Written by mlblogsraysfanboy Posted in Dailies Tagged with Andy Sonnanstine, Boston Red Sox, Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, Joe Maddon, John Lester, More Cowbell, playoffs, rays, red sox, tampa bay rays, wild card